Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 146.462961 175.204925 210.117552 256.308389 316.832507 3.949252e+02 5.058512e+02
2025-04-20 117.538090 153.276111 202.202903 276.547450 391.426780 5.712967e+02 8.955385e+02
2025-04-27 100.646279 139.377144 197.143090 294.625258 466.759348 7.861044e+02 1.512430e+03
2025-05-04 88.597708 128.428576 191.922644 308.588697 539.537826 1.040325e+03 2.484513e+03
2025-05-11 78.952606 118.663816 185.453232 317.207753 605.432357 1.328359e+03 3.996202e+03
2025-05-18 70.702886 109.394732 177.371984 319.696215 659.416282 1.634659e+03 6.280511e+03
2025-05-25 63.216806 100.068530 167.098061 314.411258 692.873259 1.918165e+03 9.444861e+03
2025-06-01 56.769404 91.559022 156.681135 305.785582 714.157435 2.189892e+03 1.394433e+04
2025-06-08 51.356492 84.162408 147.108386 296.494172 729.860596 2.466605e+03 2.066580e+04
2025-06-15 50.115682 84.298379 152.615233 324.848281 877.178065 3.559300e+03 5.544748e+04
2025-06-22 46.895144 80.194702 148.506053 327.673686 942.686574 4.377715e+03 1.219915e+05
2025-06-29 44.611425 77.637283 147.304741 338.074729 1044.930950 5.714650e+03 4.061285e+05
2025-07-06 41.289297 72.755070 140.470493 331.799411 1082.476384 6.753039e+03 1.419114e+06
2025-07-13 40.464627 72.913792 145.321047 362.118832 1311.338510 1.080264e+04 6.200877e+09
2025-07-20 39.369668 72.351956 148.362304 388.320137 1555.100296 1.735205e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 38.023548 71.070048 149.389333 408.514585 1796.926367 2.766542e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 36.448103 69.089264 148.282461 421.010963 2013.858761 4.302725e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 34.673547 66.462436 145.046073 424.625519 2180.101902 6.373202e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 32.669222 63.109681 139.355249 416.957402 2254.552408 8.513544e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 30.691612 59.644936 132.904437 404.475553 2279.165262 1.075731e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 28.866209 56.385224 126.623954 391.077963 2285.230963 1.334767e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 28.819675 57.343369 132.484553 432.116553 2904.265825 4.706076e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 27.704799 55.608837 130.234344 436.230696 3149.156595 1.037119e+06 NaN